The “Black Swan” theory in aviation safety

Abstract

The article is a review and focuses on the analysis and interpretation of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Black Swan” theory in the context of aviation safety, taking into account various aspects of risk management and preparation for unpredictable events in aviation. We present the thesis that the “Black Swan” theory has significant implications for the development of risk management strategies in aviation, emphasizing the need to prepare for rare but catastrophic events that traditional risk analysis methods may miss. The aim of the research is to understand how the “Black Swan” theory can be integrated into existing aviation safety frameworks and how it can contribute to the aviation industry being better prepared for extreme events. The article stands out for its original approach to the analysis of the “Black Swan” theory in the context of the specificity of aviation safety, pointing to new perspectives in aviation risk management. It provides valuable insights into the practical aspects of applying the “Black Swan” theory to aviation, offering a novel approach to predicting and responding to unexpected aviation events. This is important for both aviation safety theorists and practitioners in this field. The research covers extensive literature analysis, including case studies, risk management theories and current aviation safety strategies, providing a comprehensive overview of the issue.